Tagged: San Francisco Giants
3 reasons why: San Francisco Giants will win the World Series
As the 2016 season approaches, I will be taking a look at the 10 teams with the best odds of winning the World Series and examining three reasons why each team may ultimately hoist the trophy. Today’s team:
Giants (+750 odds to win World Series): 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016? Simple math dictates the Giants will win the World Series this year. But in case it’s not that easy (and of course it won’t be), here’s some additional reasons why the Giants may be making another deep October run:
History of bouncing back: The 2015 Giants won just 84 games and finished eight games out in the National League West, but history suggests that may be a reason for optimism. Of course the Giants and their fans – as well as every other fanbase – would prefer their team never have a down year, but that’s obviously not the case. However, when the Giants have had a down year recently, they’ve done a good job of making sure it’s just one year and nothing more. San Francisco won 86 games in 2011, then won 94 games and a World Series in 2012. In 2013, the team won just 76 games, but in 2014 a World Series parade followed an 88 win campaign.
Revamped rotation: Madison Bumgarner, who went 18-9 with a 2.93 ERA a season ago, is still the ace of the staff, but his supporting cast is vastly improved with free agent acquisitions Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto. The additions of Cueto (4.76 ERA in second half) and Samardzija (his 4.96 ERA was the highest in his career since he became a full-time starter) certainly come with question marks, but if the two are able to get back on track – making half of their starts in AT&T Park will help – then it’s hard to discount the Giants’ rotation.
Postseason experience: Once you get into the playoffs, anything can happen. Perhaps there’s no team that better exemplifies this than the Giants. The 2014 Giants won it all after sneaking into the playoffs as a Wild Card. The 2012 club trailed 2-0 in the NLDS and 3-1 in the NLCS. While that’s probably not the best way to navigate the postseason waters, the Giants have shown anything can happen in October. If the 2016 club is able to get into the playoffs – either by winning the NL West or as a Wild Card – they’ve already proven they’re capable of getting hot at just the right time.
Cubs still favorite, D-backs make huge jump in 2016 World Series odds
A trio of teams – the Cubs, Red Sox and D-backs – have garnered the bulk of the offseason headlines thus far.
Yes, plenty of teams have made moves to put themselves in a better position going forward, but the three teams mentioned above have made the biggest, most significant moves and the betting lines reflect that.
On November 2, the day after the World Series concluded, Bovada, an online casino and sportsbook, posted odds for the 2016 World Series. The Cubs (11/1) were the odds-on favorite while the Red Sox (20/1) were in the middle of the pack and the D-backs (50/1) seemed like a long shot.
Fast forward through the Winter Meetings, into the middle of December, and plenty of things have changed.
The Cubs are still the favorites, but the odds are now 8/1 after the club strengthened the rotation and signed John Lackey, in addition to bolstering an already potent lineup with the additions of Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward.
Boston got a head start on the off-season wheeling and dealing when it traded four prospects to San Diego in exchange for Craig Kimbrel. The Kimbrel trade was a big move that strengthened a ‘pen that finished the season with a 4.24 ERA, 26th in all of baseball. However, it turns out it was just a precursor as Dave Dombrowski still had some tricks up his sleeve.
The Red Sox made another big splash when they inked David Price to a monster contract and as a result, their World Series odds jumped from 20/1 to 9/1.
But perhaps the biggest off-season shocker took place just before the Winter Meetings when Arizona landed Zack Greinke. Not only did the Greinke signing give a tremendous boost to Arizona’s starting rotation, but it also subtraced an ace from the Dodgers’ staff and kept the Giants, a division rival and the other finalist in the Greinke sweepstakes, from acquiring the superstar.
Of course, once the D-backs added Greinke it was a clear sign that the team was in “win now” mode, so Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa went out and made another bold move, trading for Shelby Miller.
The D-backs finished second in the National League in runs scored a season ago and added two quality arms to the rotation which is why the odds went all the way from 50/1 to 20/1.
Although the Giants missed on Greinke, the club added Jeff Samardzija and saw odds swing from 20/1 to 8/1.
While all those changes were significant and interesting, there is still plenty of offseason left, which means time for more deals (what happens if the Cubs get another pitcher?).
2 outs and no one on, a quick look at pitching efficiency in the NL West
The Jackson 5 may have sang “Easy as 123” but for a pitcher on the mound things aren’t quite as simple.
The goal is certainly to retire the side in order every time, but it doesn’t always happen that way and often that can be what separates a good pitcher from a great one.
Earlier this week, while watching the Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks from the Chase Field press box, a colleague and I were discussing how many batters reach base with two on and no outs.
In that particular game the starting pitchers retired the first two batters faced in each of the first two innings, but in all four half innings the third batter reached (two of them scored).
Not only does allowing the third batter to reach open up the potential for a run to score, but it extends the inning.
If the pitcher retires the fourth batter of the inning, it may look like a “no harm, no foul situation,” but that’s not exactly the case.
The pitcher now has to throw more pitches, which if this situation happens of couple of times in a game, will certainly add up.
Those extra base runners could be the difference between a starter going five innings vs six or six vs seven, which then puts extra stress on the bullpens.
It’s a compounding problem and the more I thought about it the more curious I was so I looked up some numbers in the National League West.
It should come as no surprise the when there are two outs and none on the Los Angeles Dodgers, in first place in the division, have allowed opponents to hit just .229 (with an on-base percentage of .309).
Also to no surprise, Dodgers starters have pitched the most innings in the division with 337 1/3. Of course, having Clayton Kershaw in the rotation helps that number as well.
As for how the rest of the division pitches with none on and two outs …
| Team (in order of standings) | Opponent batting avg | Opponent on-base % | Starters innings pitched |
| San Francisco Giants | 270 | 334 | 339 2/3 |
| San Diego Padres | 243 | 313 | 338 |
| Arizona D-backs | 251 | 315 | 310 |
| Colorado Rockies | 249 | 335 | 289 |
The numbers don’t align perfectly with the standings, but with the exception of the Giants it’s clear that the better teams are the ones that do a better job of getting out of innings as soon as possible.
10 Things I’m Watching In 2015: Madison Bumgarner And The SF Giants
As we count down to Spring Training, here’s the second installment of my ’10 Things I’m Watching In 2015′ series. Today’s focus is on the defending World Champion San Francisco Giants and their ace Madison Bumgarner.
Look at a team that has won three World Series in the past five seasons and you wouldn’t expect to find a lot of holes. Any team on that sort of run would seem like a near guarantee to at least reach the playoffs.
However, that’s not the way the Giants have operated over the past five seasons.
Yes, the Giants have three rings and the word ‘dynasty’ can be associated with them, but they’ve been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde case. After winning the World Series in 2010, San Francisco won 86 games in 2011. Then after another championship in 2012, the Giants won just 76 games in 2013.
So, what will happen in 2015?
Certainly the Giants would like to stay away from that recent trend (although if it guarantees another ring in 2016, then who cares about 2015) but in order to do so they’ll need to replace Pablo Sandoval and Michael Morse.
Nori Aoki and Casey McGehee are solid signings, but the player I’m most interested in watching in 2015 is Madison Bumgarner.
The left-hander has been solid for the Giants with four straight seasons of 30 or more starts and an ERA below 3.40, but this season will be different.
After Bumgarner lit up the national stage and posted a 1.03 ERA in 52 2/3 postseason innings in 2014, Bumgarner has become much more of a household name than he was previously.
While his play under the bright October lights would indicate Bumgarner is the type of player that won’t be fazed by his newfound fame, it could be interesting to see what type of encore he puts on.
Recap of previous entries:
Is This California’s Year?
“Now let me welcome everybody to the wild, wild West. A state that’s untouchable like Eliot Ness”
Odds are Dr. Dre and Tupac weren’t thinking of baseball when they came out with “California Love,” but the song – which came out in 1996 – could also serve baseball fans as an introduction to the 2014 playoff races.
There will be great drama and meaningful games across the country throughout the remainder of the season, but it’s time for people to start staying up late and watching the great baseball taking place on the West Coast.
The 2014 season is shaping up to be the first ever in which four teams from California are simultaneously in the playoffs – sorry San Diego.
Twice (A’s, Angels, Giants in 2002 and A’s, Dodgers, Padres in 2006) California has had three teams in the playoffs, but that’s it.
Not only would four teams be historic, but it could also heighten the tension in the playoffs as intrastate series always produce a unique form of drama.
There is plenty of baseball left to be played and injuries or any number of unforeseen variables could alter the postseason picture, but as of now four California teams have tremendous odds of making the postseason.
According to Baseball Prospectus, Oakland has a 99.5 percent chance of making the postseason, Anaheim’s at 99.1 percent, Los Angeles at 84.0 and San Francisco at 78.2.
The A’s are a game and a half up on the Angels in the AL West while the Giants lead the Dodgers by a game in the NL West.
Undoubtedly expanded playoffs have provided this opportunity, but don’t let that discredit what is happening out West as there is some tremendous baseball being played out there. Three of the top four win percentages in baseball come from the state of California and four of the top 10.
The NL West race will be fun to watch for a multitude of reasons, but the simplest is because it’s the Giants and Dodgers.
Whenever those teams square off, tensions are high. Throw in a potential division crown and the nine remaining games between the team that has won two of the last four World Series and the team that has a league-high $242,128,402 payroll are sure to provide compelling story lines.
The A’s and Angels don’t have quite the same rivalry, but the AL West race – a race between teams with the two best records in baseball – isn’t hurting for reasons to watch.
Not only are the Angels and A’s going to go head-to-head six more times on the field this season, but they have also been duking it out in the front offices.
The A’s made the biggest splash of the trading season when they acquired Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija from the Cubs, but the Angels weren’t going to be outdone. The Angels have bolstered their bullpen through trades and have added Joe Thatcher, Jason Grilli and Huston Street.
The AL West race is also intriguing because the teams – despite a lot of similarities – are opposite when it comes to perception. The A’s, despite having won the division each of the past two season, are a team devoid of superstars and often lacked recognition. The Angels finished third in the division in 2012 and 2013, but because their roster features Albert Pujols, Mike Trout and Josh Hamilton they still had no troubles finding their way into the headlines.
West Coast teams are likely to play a big role in the second half of the season and as the calendar turns to Fall, California is not a bad place to be.
California knows how to party.
And this year, one of four baseball teams may prove it.
Boor on Baseball 