Category: San Francisco Giants
3 reasons why: San Francisco Giants will win the World Series
As the 2016 season approaches, I will be taking a look at the 10 teams with the best odds of winning the World Series and examining three reasons why each team may ultimately hoist the trophy. Today’s team:
Giants (+750 odds to win World Series): 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016? Simple math dictates the Giants will win the World Series this year. But in case it’s not that easy (and of course it won’t be), here’s some additional reasons why the Giants may be making another deep October run:
History of bouncing back: The 2015 Giants won just 84 games and finished eight games out in the National League West, but history suggests that may be a reason for optimism. Of course the Giants and their fans – as well as every other fanbase – would prefer their team never have a down year, but that’s obviously not the case. However, when the Giants have had a down year recently, they’ve done a good job of making sure it’s just one year and nothing more. San Francisco won 86 games in 2011, then won 94 games and a World Series in 2012. In 2013, the team won just 76 games, but in 2014 a World Series parade followed an 88 win campaign.
Revamped rotation: Madison Bumgarner, who went 18-9 with a 2.93 ERA a season ago, is still the ace of the staff, but his supporting cast is vastly improved with free agent acquisitions Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto. The additions of Cueto (4.76 ERA in second half) and Samardzija (his 4.96 ERA was the highest in his career since he became a full-time starter) certainly come with question marks, but if the two are able to get back on track – making half of their starts in AT&T Park will help – then it’s hard to discount the Giants’ rotation.
Postseason experience: Once you get into the playoffs, anything can happen. Perhaps there’s no team that better exemplifies this than the Giants. The 2014 Giants won it all after sneaking into the playoffs as a Wild Card. The 2012 club trailed 2-0 in the NLDS and 3-1 in the NLCS. While that’s probably not the best way to navigate the postseason waters, the Giants have shown anything can happen in October. If the 2016 club is able to get into the playoffs – either by winning the NL West or as a Wild Card – they’ve already proven they’re capable of getting hot at just the right time.
Cubs still favorite, D-backs make huge jump in 2016 World Series odds
A trio of teams – the Cubs, Red Sox and D-backs – have garnered the bulk of the offseason headlines thus far.
Yes, plenty of teams have made moves to put themselves in a better position going forward, but the three teams mentioned above have made the biggest, most significant moves and the betting lines reflect that.
On November 2, the day after the World Series concluded, Bovada, an online casino and sportsbook, posted odds for the 2016 World Series. The Cubs (11/1) were the odds-on favorite while the Red Sox (20/1) were in the middle of the pack and the D-backs (50/1) seemed like a long shot.
Fast forward through the Winter Meetings, into the middle of December, and plenty of things have changed.
The Cubs are still the favorites, but the odds are now 8/1 after the club strengthened the rotation and signed John Lackey, in addition to bolstering an already potent lineup with the additions of Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward.
Boston got a head start on the off-season wheeling and dealing when it traded four prospects to San Diego in exchange for Craig Kimbrel. The Kimbrel trade was a big move that strengthened a ‘pen that finished the season with a 4.24 ERA, 26th in all of baseball. However, it turns out it was just a precursor as Dave Dombrowski still had some tricks up his sleeve.
The Red Sox made another big splash when they inked David Price to a monster contract and as a result, their World Series odds jumped from 20/1 to 9/1.
But perhaps the biggest off-season shocker took place just before the Winter Meetings when Arizona landed Zack Greinke. Not only did the Greinke signing give a tremendous boost to Arizona’s starting rotation, but it also subtraced an ace from the Dodgers’ staff and kept the Giants, a division rival and the other finalist in the Greinke sweepstakes, from acquiring the superstar.
Of course, once the D-backs added Greinke it was a clear sign that the team was in “win now” mode, so Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa went out and made another bold move, trading for Shelby Miller.
The D-backs finished second in the National League in runs scored a season ago and added two quality arms to the rotation which is why the odds went all the way from 50/1 to 20/1.
Although the Giants missed on Greinke, the club added Jeff Samardzija and saw odds swing from 20/1 to 8/1.
While all those changes were significant and interesting, there is still plenty of offseason left, which means time for more deals (what happens if the Cubs get another pitcher?).
2 outs and no one on, a quick look at pitching efficiency in the NL West
The Jackson 5 may have sang “Easy as 123” but for a pitcher on the mound things aren’t quite as simple.
The goal is certainly to retire the side in order every time, but it doesn’t always happen that way and often that can be what separates a good pitcher from a great one.
Earlier this week, while watching the Atlanta Braves and Arizona Diamondbacks from the Chase Field press box, a colleague and I were discussing how many batters reach base with two on and no outs.
In that particular game the starting pitchers retired the first two batters faced in each of the first two innings, but in all four half innings the third batter reached (two of them scored).
Not only does allowing the third batter to reach open up the potential for a run to score, but it extends the inning.
If the pitcher retires the fourth batter of the inning, it may look like a “no harm, no foul situation,” but that’s not exactly the case.
The pitcher now has to throw more pitches, which if this situation happens of couple of times in a game, will certainly add up.
Those extra base runners could be the difference between a starter going five innings vs six or six vs seven, which then puts extra stress on the bullpens.
It’s a compounding problem and the more I thought about it the more curious I was so I looked up some numbers in the National League West.
It should come as no surprise the when there are two outs and none on the Los Angeles Dodgers, in first place in the division, have allowed opponents to hit just .229 (with an on-base percentage of .309).
Also to no surprise, Dodgers starters have pitched the most innings in the division with 337 1/3. Of course, having Clayton Kershaw in the rotation helps that number as well.
As for how the rest of the division pitches with none on and two outs …
| Team (in order of standings) | Opponent batting avg | Opponent on-base % | Starters innings pitched |
| San Francisco Giants | 270 | 334 | 339 2/3 |
| San Diego Padres | 243 | 313 | 338 |
| Arizona D-backs | 251 | 315 | 310 |
| Colorado Rockies | 249 | 335 | 289 |
The numbers don’t align perfectly with the standings, but with the exception of the Giants it’s clear that the better teams are the ones that do a better job of getting out of innings as soon as possible.
10 Things I’m Watching In 2015: Madison Bumgarner And The SF Giants
As we count down to Spring Training, here’s the second installment of my ’10 Things I’m Watching In 2015′ series. Today’s focus is on the defending World Champion San Francisco Giants and their ace Madison Bumgarner.
Look at a team that has won three World Series in the past five seasons and you wouldn’t expect to find a lot of holes. Any team on that sort of run would seem like a near guarantee to at least reach the playoffs.
However, that’s not the way the Giants have operated over the past five seasons.
Yes, the Giants have three rings and the word ‘dynasty’ can be associated with them, but they’ve been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde case. After winning the World Series in 2010, San Francisco won 86 games in 2011. Then after another championship in 2012, the Giants won just 76 games in 2013.
So, what will happen in 2015?
Certainly the Giants would like to stay away from that recent trend (although if it guarantees another ring in 2016, then who cares about 2015) but in order to do so they’ll need to replace Pablo Sandoval and Michael Morse.
Nori Aoki and Casey McGehee are solid signings, but the player I’m most interested in watching in 2015 is Madison Bumgarner.
The left-hander has been solid for the Giants with four straight seasons of 30 or more starts and an ERA below 3.40, but this season will be different.
After Bumgarner lit up the national stage and posted a 1.03 ERA in 52 2/3 postseason innings in 2014, Bumgarner has become much more of a household name than he was previously.
While his play under the bright October lights would indicate Bumgarner is the type of player that won’t be fazed by his newfound fame, it could be interesting to see what type of encore he puts on.
Recap of previous entries:
Magic Numbers, World Series Favorites, MVP Odds And More
From your basic statistics such as batting average and ERA to more advanced sabermetrics like UZR and BABIP, baseball is a sport littered with numbers.
Baseball fans typically like numbers, so here are some numbers to keep your eyes on for the remainder of the season:
Playoff Clinch Scenarios:
*The Angels can clinch a playoff berth September 10th, the earliest of any team in the Majors.
*The Orioles and Nationals could clinch their divisions (AL and NL East) on September 12th, the earliest of any team.
Magic Numbers To Win Division:
*Orioles magic number is 19
*Royals magic number is 26 (25 to clinch playoff berth)
*Angels magic number is 22 (17 to clinch playoff berth)
*Nationals magic number is 19
*Cardinals magic number is 25 (23 to clinch playoff berth)
*Dodgers magic number is 23 (20 to clinch playoff berth)
Wild Cards:
*A’s magic number to clinch a playoff berth is 21 (22 for the first Wild Card spot)
*Tigers magic number is 25 to clinch a playoff berth
*Giants magic number is 22 to clinch a playoff berth and 24 to host the Wild Card game.
*The Brewers magic number is 24.
Pennant Odds: According to Bovada Sportsbook (http://sports.bovada.lv/)
AL
*Angels – 5/2
*A’s – 7/2
*Orioles and Tigers – 4/1
*Royals – 7/1
*Mariners – 12/1
NL
*Dodgers – 2/1
*Nationals – 5/2
*Cardinals – 5/1
*Brewers and Giants – 7/1
*Braves – 14/1
World Series Odds:
*Angels – 5/1
*Dodgers – 11/2
*Nationals – 6/1
*Orioles and A’s – 7/1
*Tigers – 8/1
AL Cy Young:
*Felix Hernandez -300
*Chris Sale +300
*Max Scherzer +500
AL MVP:
*Mike Trout -200
*Robinson Cano +500
*Jose Abreu +550
NL MVP:
*Clayton Kershaw -150
*Giancarlo Stanton +120
*Andrew McCutchen +1000
There are no odds listed for the NL Cy Young award which is one way of saying congratulations to Clayton Kershaw.
Dbacks Can Play Spoiler, Impact October
The Arizona Diamondbacks aren’t going to be playing baseball in October, but have a chance to impact who is.
The Dbacks have 31 games left in the season and 14 of those games (45 percent) are against teams in the think of playoff races.
Arizona hosts the Los Angeles Dodgers for a brief two game series Tuesday and Wednesday and also travels to Los Angeles for a three-game series September 5-7.
In addition to the five games against the Dodgers, the Dbacks will play six games against the Giants – three in Arizona and three in San Francisco – and finish the season at home against the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Dodgers arrived at Chase Field on Tuesday with a five game lead in the National League West.
The Cardinals are a game and a half back in the NL Central and have a three game lead in the NL Wild Card.
The Giants are trailing the Dodgers in the NL West, but have a half game lead for the second NL Wild Card spot.
On September 1, MLB rosters expand from 25 to 40 players so teams will be calling up top prospects and giving them a shot to compete and learn a bit of what life is like at the Major League level.
Since Arizona is not in contention, it is likely they will giving players a look in order to determine how the roster will look in 2015 and the performance of those players – and the Dbacks as a whole – could have an impact on October.
So far this season the Dbacks are 4-10 against the Dodgers (0-2 in Australia, 2-4 at home and 2-4 on the road).
Arizona is also 5-8 against the Giants (3-3 in San Francisco and 2-5 in Arizona) and 0-3 against the Cardinals as they were swept in St. Louis earlier this season.
Five National League Storylines To Watch
Believe it or not August is halfway over and the baseball season is racing to a finish. There are plenty of players, story lines and themes expected to develop over the final six weeks of the season as teams make their final pushes toward playoff berths.
This is by no means a comprehensive list, but here are five things – in no particular order – worth watching in the National League as the season winds down.
The Cubs:
The Cubs aren’t making the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t worth a look. When the Cubs called up prized prospect Javier Baez they instantly made themselves an entertaining team to watch.
With Baez, Starlin Casto, Anthony Rizzo, Arismendy Alcantara, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks the Cubs are full of young talent.
What makes the Cubs intriguing the rest of the way is the fact that expanded rosters are coming and the Cubs have even more talent in their farm system.
Depending on who the Cubs bring up in September, baseball fans – specifically Chicago fans – will get a glimpse of the future and see what those within the Cubs organization are so excited for the next few years.
The Brewers Pitching Staff:
The Brewers have a two game lead in the NL Central and an 85.2 percent chance of making the playoffs according to Baseball Prospectus, but losing a key member of the starting rotation is never easy.
Pitching is always important, but it seems this time of year the value of a strong staff is amplified. With Matt Garza on the DL (left rib cage strain) there has been a bit of extra pressure on the Brewers pitching staff to fill the void.
In the 11 games since Garza has been out, the Brewers have a team ERA of 2.78 so they are doing a good job of holding it together, but how long can that last?
The Brewers have been in first place for 143 days this season, but are only two games up on the Cardinals.
Cardinals Injuries (Molina, Wacha, Motte):
The Cardinals are two games back in the NL Central and have a game and a half lead in the NL Wild Card race, but how long can they keep it up?
St. Louis has been hit hard with injuries to key players this season and it makes some wonder how they’ve managed to stay afloat.
Michael Wacha has been on the DL since late June with a stress reaction in his right shoulder, Yadier Molina has been on the DL since early July after having thumb surgery and Jason Motte was recently sidelined with a lower back sprain.
While the injury news has been grim for the Cardinals this season, the good news is it looks like they are getting healthier.
Molina caught a bullpen session earlier this week and hopes to start swinging a bat next week while Wacha threw off flat ground this week and has a follow-up MRI set for Monday.
If all goes well, the Cardinals could get Wacha and Molina back in September which would obviously be a huge lift to the organization.
In the meantime, the team needs to continue to find ways to win games and hope there aren’t any setbacks.
The Giants:
The Giants are only a half game out of the Wild Card, but they’re lost six of their last seven games, are just 11-15 since the All-Star break and are falling fast.
San Francisco got off to a hot start this season, but but was sub-.500 in both June and July and are on track to do so again in August.
The Giants have won the World Series in two of the past four seasons so it would be foolish to count out a team with that sort of late-season experience, but lately they are not playing like a team poised for a deep October run.
Clayton Kershaw:
The Dodgers look to be on their way to a second straight NL West crown and if that turns out to be the case, it will be in large part thanks to Clayton Kershaw.
The Cy Young Award frontrunner is 14-2 with a 1.78 ERA this season and has won 11 straight decisions.
Kershaw is widely regarded as the best pitcher in baseball and although everyone knows how good he is, he’s on the list for one plain and simple reason.
Whenever he pitches, you should watch.
Regardless of how you feel about the Dodgers, watching Kershaw pitch is a great experience for any baseball fan.
Kershaw is truly one of those very special players that only comes around every so often and as the season winds down, it will be fun to watch him pitch on meaningful October nights.
Boor on Baseball 