Category: Seattle Mariners
10 Things I’m Watching In 2015: American League West
As we count down to Spring Training, here’s the sixth installment of my ’10 Things I’m Watching In 2015′ series. Today’s topic: the American League West.
Ultimately the Angels ran away with the AL West in 2014, but things could be very different this time around. Yes, the Angels have another great squad, but several AL West teams made big moves over the off season and it looks as if this may be the best division in baseball. The NL Central will rival the AL West for that title, but either way the race out West will be fun to watch and will likely come down to the season’s final days.
Angels:
After posting a 98 win season in 2014, it was not all that surprising that the Angels didn’t go out and completely retool their roster over the off season. The Angels 2015 lineup will look a lot like the one that ended the 2014 season.
A healthy Garrett Richards will be a welcomed face to the rotation, but it also looks like the Angels may start the season without Josh Hamilton.
Although the Angels didn’t make a ton of big moves over the off season, the team did trade Howie Kendrick to the Dodgers, so second base will be a position to watch both offensively and defensively.
A’s:
The A’s got off to a strong start last season and looked like they would easily win the division, but ultimately struggled down the stretch.The late season collapse was followed by a whirlwind of an off season and now the 2015 season will begin with an Oakland roster that hardly resembles that of 2014.
Across the infield the A’s began 2014 with Brandon Moss, Eric Sogard, Jed Lowrie and Josh Donaldson, but this season the projected Opening Day lineup consists of Ike Davis, Ben Zobrist, Marcus Semien and Brett Lawrie, with Billy Butler at DH.
Billy Beane completely changed the makeup of the team over the off season, but the A’s have been to the playoffs in three consecutive seasons so it’s hard to count them out.
Also, it’s important to note that the Athletics will once again feature a strong pitching staff – a fact that will keep them in a lot of games.
Despite losing Jon Lester (not that anyone thought he’d resign or stay in Oakland) and trading away Jeff Samardzija, the A’s will still have a rotation that consists of Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, Jesse Chavez, Jesse Hahn and Drew Pomeranz.
Oakland’s rotation may be impressive, but it might not even be the best in the division.
Mariners: With arguably the best pitcher in the American League in Felix Hernandez, it’s quite possible the Mariners have the best rotation as well. Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma are a nasty 1-2 punch and will win the Mariners in a lot of games.
While the pitching was there last season, Seattle often struggled to score runs in 2014 – a problem the teams hopes will be solved with the addition of Nelson Cruz.
Cruz hit 40 home runs a season ago and will make the top of the Mariners line-up, along with Austin Jackson and Robinson Cano, a lot more potent than it was just a season ago.
Astros: Just as the A’s made several changes, so did the Astros. The 2015 Astros will look a lot different than the 2014 version – including new manager A.J. Hinch – and appear to be in a much better position to compete.
To bolster the offense, the Astros added Evan Gattis, but most of the reshuffling happened in the bullpen as the Astros added Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek.
Gregerson and Neshek – both right-handers – are coming off some of the best seasons in their careers. Gregorson posted a career-best 2.12 ERA last season while Neshek posted a 1.87 ERA and was selected to his first All Star game.
Jed Lowrie will also be a nice addition to the middle of the infield as he returns to Houston after a productive two seasons in Oakland.
Rangers: Every team deal with injuries, but the amount the Rangers faced last season was crazy.
First and foremost Rangers fans have to be excited about starting 2015 with a healthy Prince Fielder. That fact alone should be a boost to the offense, but regaining Fielder is not the only significant move the Rangers have made.
Late in the off season the Rangers made perhaps their most significant off season move when they traded for Yovani Gallardo.
Gallardo figured to fit into the middle of the Rangers rotation and has started 30 or more games in six straight seasons – a good sign for a team that has struggled with injures and had a hard time keeping players on the field.
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Magic Numbers, World Series Favorites, MVP Odds And More
From your basic statistics such as batting average and ERA to more advanced sabermetrics like UZR and BABIP, baseball is a sport littered with numbers.
Baseball fans typically like numbers, so here are some numbers to keep your eyes on for the remainder of the season:
Playoff Clinch Scenarios:
*The Angels can clinch a playoff berth September 10th, the earliest of any team in the Majors.
*The Orioles and Nationals could clinch their divisions (AL and NL East) on September 12th, the earliest of any team.
Magic Numbers To Win Division:
*Orioles magic number is 19
*Royals magic number is 26 (25 to clinch playoff berth)
*Angels magic number is 22 (17 to clinch playoff berth)
*Nationals magic number is 19
*Cardinals magic number is 25 (23 to clinch playoff berth)
*Dodgers magic number is 23 (20 to clinch playoff berth)
Wild Cards:
*A’s magic number to clinch a playoff berth is 21 (22 for the first Wild Card spot)
*Tigers magic number is 25 to clinch a playoff berth
*Giants magic number is 22 to clinch a playoff berth and 24 to host the Wild Card game.
*The Brewers magic number is 24.
Pennant Odds: According to Bovada Sportsbook (http://sports.bovada.lv/)
AL
*Angels – 5/2
*A’s – 7/2
*Orioles and Tigers – 4/1
*Royals – 7/1
*Mariners – 12/1
NL
*Dodgers – 2/1
*Nationals – 5/2
*Cardinals – 5/1
*Brewers and Giants – 7/1
*Braves – 14/1
World Series Odds:
*Angels – 5/1
*Dodgers – 11/2
*Nationals – 6/1
*Orioles and A’s – 7/1
*Tigers – 8/1
AL Cy Young:
*Felix Hernandez -300
*Chris Sale +300
*Max Scherzer +500
AL MVP:
*Mike Trout -200
*Robinson Cano +500
*Jose Abreu +550
NL MVP:
*Clayton Kershaw -150
*Giancarlo Stanton +120
*Andrew McCutchen +1000
There are no odds listed for the NL Cy Young award which is one way of saying congratulations to Clayton Kershaw.
AL West Weekend Recap, Takeaways
The weekend series between the Oakland Athletics and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim certainly lived up to the hype. The A’s took the first two games of the series – both of which were very tense for all nine innings – while the Angels coasted to a lopsided victory in the third game.
As these teams fight for a division crown over the last five weeks of the season there will be plenty more head-to-head matchups, but after watching the weekend series, here are some quick takeaways:
Athletics: 76-53, 1 Game Back In AL West, 5 Game Lead In Wild Card
Good:
The Athletics limped into the weekend series having lost eight of 10 and were fresh off watching their four-game division lead turn into a two-game deficit.
While taking two of three from the first place Angels, the A’s showed they are not going to roll over in this division race and in the first two games of the series they resembled the team that had the best record in baseball for the bulk of the year – not the team that has struggled in August.
It’s no secret what the A’s are capable of this season, but a rough patch had some people questioning the team’s future. Oakland used the weekend showdown against the Angels to answer some of those questions and remind everyone that they’re a playoff-caliber team.
Bad:
Over the course of a 162 game season, blowout losses – like the A’s 9-4 loss to the Angels on Sunday night – are going to happen. However, with the momentum of two straight wins against a division rival, a blowout loss can take the wind out of the sails a bit.
But, perhaps more importantly than one August loss to the Angels is the health of some of the A’s key players.
Prior to Sunday’s contest, the A’s put closer Sean Doolittle on the Disabled List with a right intercostal (the muscles between the ribs) strain.
Third baseman Josh Donaldson also had an MRI on Sunday, but manager Bob Melvin said the MRI revealed no structural damage of Donaldson’s left knee.
Melvin did say Donaldson’s knee just had a little “instability” but added that he expected the third baseman to be in the lineup Monday against the Astros.
Angels: 77-52, 1 Game Lead In AL West
Good:
After dropping the first two games of the series, the Angels offense came to life Sunday. The Angels scored eight runs in the first four innings and finished the game with nine runs on 13 hits.
While it’s always nice to see the entire offense break out in such a way, the Angels have to be pleased with the way some of their stars are swinging the bats.
Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and Erick Aybar all had multi-hit games Sunday.
When Trout, Pujols and Hamilton are all hitting, the Angels offense is extremely dangerous and it looks like that may be on the verge of happening.
Hamilton singled in his first at-bat and then homered in his second at-bat while Trout singled in his second at-bat and hit a 417 blast to center field in his third at-bat.
In the same way it was good for the Angels to see their offense break out, it was also good for Mike Scioscia to not see a couple of his relievers on the mound.
Kevin Jepsen, Joe Smith and Houston Street did not have to pitch in Sunday’s finale which was vital for the Angels as they had all pitched extensively on the road trip.
Jepsen pitched in five of the 10 games on the trip, Smith pitched in six and Street pitched in five. Street did start to warm up in the ninth, but never came in the game.
Bad:
The Angels leave Oakland with a one game lead in the division, but are just 4-8 against the Athletics this season. The Angels finish the season with 43 games in 45 days and seven of those games will be against the A’s.
The Angels and A’s will face off four times next week in Anaheim and then in late September the teams will play three in Oakland – where the Angels are just 1-5 this season.
Sometimes teams just don’t match-up well against other teams, but if the Angels want to hold on to the division lead, they are going to need to find a way to beat the A’s head-to-head.
Mariners:
The AL West race has been centered on the Angels and the Athletics, but by no means is this only a two-team race.
Seattle is arguably playing the best baseball of any team in the division right now and with a very strong pitching staff, the Mariners are more than capable of catching either the A’s or the Angels.
The Mariners have a 2.28 ERA – the best in baseball – since the All-Star break, have won seven of their last 10 games and still have six games left against the A’s and seven left against the Angels.
As ESPN’s Buster Olney noted on Twitter, the Mariners were 11 1/2 games back of the A’s on July 27th. On August 25th, they’ll wake up with a one-game lead in the second Wild Card spot and also find themselves just five games behind the Athletics and six games behind the Angels.
Five American League Storylines To Watch
With roughly six weeks left in the baseball season, playoff chases are heating up and every call, game and managerial decision of contending teams will be under intense pressure and scrutiny.
As the games seemingly get more important, some teams in the hunt are going to need players to step up while other are going to look at their leaders and simply hope they continue to do what they’ve done all season long.
Here’s a quick look at five American League players and trends to watch as the season winds down. (Note: This list is in no particular order and a National List will be compiled this weekend as well)
Hisashi Iwakuma:
The Mariners enter play Friday a half game out of the Wild Card, but according to Baseball Prospectus, Seattle has a 50.6 percent chance of making the postseason. Everyone knows Felix Hernandez is the ace of the staff and all indications suggest Hernandez will finish the season strong and pitch like the player everyone knows he is.
However, the AL Wild Card race is likely going to come down to the very end and if the Mariners need Hernandez to win a game in the final week of play, Iwakuma may be pitching in a single elimination Wild Card contest.
Iwakuma is 11-6 with a 2.72 ERA this season and is 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA over his past nine starts.
The 33-year old right hander may not get the recognition of King Felix, but if the Mariners are able to get into October, Iwakuma will have played a major role.
Garrett Richards:
With each passing day, it’s looking more and more likely the Angels will be in the postseason for the first time since 2009. Baseball Prospectus calculates the Angels as having a 98.9 percent chance of playing in October. However, the real question is whether they will win the AL West and play in a best-of-five series, or clinch a Wild Card berth and play in a win or go home game against the other Wild Card winner.
The Angels begin play Friday two games back in the AL West and five games up in the Wild Card.
A large part of the Angels success this season can be attributed to the breakout season of Garrett Richards, who is 12-4 with a 2.54 ERA this season. Although Richards has been great all season, he enters Friday’s start having thrown 159 2/3 innings – the most in his professional career, including the minors.
Richards threw 145 innings in 2013 and exceeded the 140 inning mark twice in the minors (2010 and 2011) but as the season wears on, his work load is something to look at.
The 26-year old has a 2.48 ERA in five starts since the All-Star break so he has not shown any signs of slowing down, but as the innings continue to mount – and the pressure associated with each inning rises – it will be important for the Angels to keep an eye on arguably the most important member of their rotation.
A’s Offense:
Odds are the Oakland Athletics are going to play in October for the third consecutive season, but if their offense doesn’t get going, their postseason may be brief – for the third consecutive season.
Pitching wins in October and Billy Beane has made sure the Athletics rotation will be formidable come the playoffs, but offense is still a big part of the game and right now the A’s don’t have a very good one, at least not consistently.
Since the A’s traded their power hitting left fielder, Yoenis Cespedes, to the Boston Red Sox, they have gone 7-7 and averaged just 3.8 runs per game. When Cespedes was on the Oakland roster, they had averaged five runs per game.
But, by no means is it time to panic for fans of the green and gold.
Jon Lester has been as advertised, going 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA since the trade and the A’s still have the best record in baseball.
There is time to get the offense rolling again, but if the A’s struggle to score for the rest of the season and exit the postseason in the first round again, many will blame the Cespedes trade.
Justin Verlander:
With David Price, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello, the Tigers rotation is among the best in the game, but something just hasn’t been the same this year.
Recently, when you thought of the Tigers pitching staffs, the thought process always centered around Justin Verlander.
However, Verlander’s 2014 season has been atypical as he is 10-11 with a 4.76 ERA. The Tigers right-hander was recently diagnosed with inflammation in his right shoulder, although he is not expected to go on the Disabled List, instead it looks like the Tigers will just give him some rest and skip him once in the rotation.
Baseball Prospectus says there is a 65.9 percent chance the Tigers will make the playoffs – they are currently a half game back in the AL Central and a half game up in the AL Wild Card – but if they get there, how will they use Verlander?
The right-hander is 7-5 with a 3.28 ERA in 15 postseason starts, but will the Tigers treat him like the ace of their staff who has proven himself in October? Or, like a 31-year old with an ERA just a bit under 5.00?
It will be interesting to see how the rest of the season develops for Verlander and looking ahead it is also worth watching what the Tigers do as they owe Verlander $28 million a season for the next fie years.
The Royals:
Could this be the year?
The Kansas City Royals have not been in the postseason since 1985, but have won nine of their last 20 games and find themselves with a half game lead in the AL Central.
Baseball Prospectus gives the Royals a 58.8 chance at making the playoffs and while it would be cool to see the Royals win the division because a one-game playoff could not only present a one-and-done scenario, but it may also present a situation where they play on the road and the folks of Kansas City do not get to experience a home playoff game.
However, with the playoff drought creeping up on 30 years, anyway the Royals manage to wiggle into the playoffs would be a great story.
Kansas City is 18-8 since the All-Star break and although they may lack some postseason experience, it’s going to be fun to watch this team try to close out the AL Central.