Category: playoffs

Thought You Could Predict Baseball? Guess Again

Just when something appears certain, baseball proves why it is such a beautiful and yet extremely frustrating game.

Remember six weeks ago when the A’s were seemingly on cruise control and there were talks of how this could finally be Billy Beane’s season?

Remember when the Brewers got off to such a fast start and looked poised to take the NL Central?

There was a time when most people could have penciled the A’s and Brewers – although it was still a mystery if they’d win their division or simply clinch a Wild Card spot – into the playoffs and barely would have had to think twice about it.

However, fast forward a bit and baseball has reminded us all that there was a reason we penciled those teams in the playoffs and didn’t use pen.

Nothing is certain in baseball – except maybe Clayton Kershaw winning the NL Cy Young award this season – and that has been proven once again.

The Oakland Athletics – who once had a MLB-best 72-44 record – are 8-19 in their last 27 games and just 2-8 in their last 10.

On August 15th, the A’s were in first place in the AL West. On the 18th, they fell a half game back and it has been downhill for them ever since.

This morning, the A’s woke up seven games behind the Angels in the AL West and barely clinging on to the top spot in the AL Wild Card.

While the meltdown in Oakland has been highly publicized, the collapse in Milwaukee has been shocking as well.

The Brewers demise had been more gradual than the A’s. Milwaukee started the season 20-7 and has played sub-.500 baseball ever since. However, the Brewers have really gone into a tailspin lately as they’ve lost 12 of their last 13 games.

On August 31st the Brewers were tied for the NL Central lead – a position they had held sole possession of for most of the season – and on September 9th the Brewers find themselves six games back.

Changes in the standings happen all the time, especially over the course of a 162 game season and there are plenty of reasons for the way these two teams have played recently.

Some say the Brewers age and health is catching up to them.

Some say the A’s haven’t been the same since Yoenis Cespedes was traded and although numbers certainly say they haven’t been the same team, it’s foolish to think that’s the sole reason they’re struggling.

Maybe it’s just the law of averages over-correcting teams that had spent the bulk of the season playing over their heads.

Whatever the reason may be, the collapses in Milwaukee and Oakland have been just as fascinating as some of the story lines surrounding teams and players making late season charges.

Will the A’s and Brewers put it together with enough time left to salvage the season and get back on track? That remains to be seen.

However, the one thing I know for certain is that baseball is impossible to predict and although speculating is fun, the best bet is simply letting the season play itself out.

Magic Numbers, World Series Favorites, MVP Odds And More

From your basic statistics such as batting average and ERA to more advanced sabermetrics like UZR and BABIP, baseball is a sport littered with numbers.

Baseball fans typically like numbers, so here are some numbers to keep your eyes on for the remainder of the season:

Playoff Clinch Scenarios:

*The Angels can clinch a playoff berth September 10th, the earliest of any team in the Majors.

*The Orioles and Nationals could clinch their divisions (AL and NL East) on September 12th, the earliest of any team.

Magic Numbers To Win Division:

*Orioles magic number is 19

*Royals magic number is 26 (25 to clinch playoff berth)

*Angels magic number is 22 (17 to clinch playoff berth)

*Nationals magic number is 19

*Cardinals magic number is 25 (23 to clinch playoff berth)

*Dodgers magic number is 23 (20 to clinch playoff berth)

Wild Cards:

*A’s magic number to clinch a playoff berth is 21 (22 for the first Wild Card spot)

*Tigers magic number is 25 to clinch a playoff berth

*Giants magic number is 22 to clinch a playoff berth and 24 to host the Wild Card game.

*The Brewers magic number is 24.

Pennant Odds: According to Bovada Sportsbook (http://sports.bovada.lv/)

AL

*Angels – 5/2

*A’s – 7/2

*Orioles and Tigers – 4/1

*Royals – 7/1

*Mariners – 12/1

NL

*Dodgers – 2/1

*Nationals – 5/2

*Cardinals – 5/1

*Brewers and Giants – 7/1

*Braves – 14/1

World Series Odds:

*Angels – 5/1

*Dodgers – 11/2

*Nationals – 6/1

*Orioles and A’s – 7/1

*Tigers – 8/1

AL Cy Young:

*Felix Hernandez -300

*Chris Sale +300

*Max Scherzer +500

AL MVP:

*Mike Trout -200

*Robinson Cano +500

*Jose Abreu +550

NL MVP:

*Clayton Kershaw -150

*Giancarlo Stanton +120

*Andrew McCutchen +1000

There are no odds listed for the NL Cy Young award which is one way of saying congratulations to Clayton Kershaw.

Dbacks Can Play Spoiler, Impact October

The Arizona Diamondbacks aren’t going to be playing baseball in October, but have a chance to impact who is.

The Dbacks have 31 games left in the season and 14 of those games (45 percent) are against teams in the think of playoff races.

Arizona hosts the Los Angeles Dodgers for a brief two game series Tuesday and Wednesday and also travels to Los Angeles for a three-game series September 5-7.

In addition to the five games against the Dodgers, the Dbacks will play six games against the Giants – three in Arizona and three in San Francisco – and finish the season at home against the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Dodgers arrived at Chase Field on Tuesday with a five game lead in the National League West.

The Cardinals are a game and a half back in the NL Central and have a three game lead in the NL Wild Card.

The Giants are trailing the Dodgers in the NL West, but have a half game lead for the second NL Wild Card spot.

On September 1, MLB rosters expand from 25 to 40 players so teams will be calling up top prospects and giving them a shot to compete and learn a bit of what life is like at the Major League level.

Since Arizona is not in contention, it is likely they will giving players a look in order to determine how the roster will look in 2015 and the performance of those players – and the Dbacks as a whole – could have an impact on October.

So far this season the Dbacks are 4-10 against the Dodgers (0-2 in Australia, 2-4 at home and 2-4 on the road).

Arizona is also 5-8 against the Giants (3-3 in San Francisco and 2-5 in Arizona) and 0-3 against the Cardinals as they were swept in St. Louis earlier this season.

AL West Weekend Recap, Takeaways

The weekend series between the Oakland Athletics and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim certainly lived up to the hype. The A’s took the first two games of the series – both of which were very tense for all nine innings – while the Angels coasted to a lopsided victory in the third game.

As these teams fight for a division crown over the last five weeks of the season there will be plenty more head-to-head matchups, but after watching the weekend series, here are some quick takeaways:

Athletics: 76-53, 1 Game Back In AL West, 5 Game Lead In Wild Card

Good:

The Athletics limped into the weekend series having lost eight of 10 and were fresh off watching their four-game division lead turn into a two-game deficit.

While taking two of three from the first place Angels, the A’s showed they are not going to roll over in this division race and in the first two games of the series they resembled the team that had the best record in baseball for the bulk of the year – not the team that has struggled in August.

It’s no secret what the A’s are capable of this season, but a rough patch had some people questioning the team’s future. Oakland used the weekend showdown against the Angels to answer some of those questions and remind everyone that they’re a playoff-caliber team.

Bad:

Over the course of a 162 game season, blowout losses – like the A’s 9-4 loss to the Angels on Sunday night – are going to happen. However, with the momentum of two straight wins against a division rival, a blowout loss can take the wind out of the sails a bit.

But, perhaps more importantly than one August loss to the Angels is the health of some of the A’s key players.

Prior to Sunday’s contest, the A’s put closer Sean Doolittle on the Disabled List with a right intercostal (the muscles between the ribs) strain.

Third baseman Josh Donaldson also had an MRI on Sunday, but manager Bob Melvin said the MRI revealed no structural damage of Donaldson’s left knee.

Melvin did say Donaldson’s knee just had a little “instability” but added that he expected the third baseman to be in the lineup Monday against the Astros.

Angels: 77-52, 1 Game Lead In AL West

Good:

After dropping the first two games of the series, the Angels offense came to life Sunday. The Angels scored eight runs in the first four innings and finished the game with nine runs on 13 hits.

While it’s always nice to see the entire offense break out in such a way, the Angels have to be pleased with the way some of their stars are swinging the bats.

Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and Erick Aybar all had multi-hit games Sunday.

When Trout, Pujols and Hamilton are all hitting, the Angels offense is extremely dangerous and it looks like that may be on the verge of happening.

Hamilton singled in his first at-bat and then homered in his second at-bat while Trout singled in his second at-bat and hit a 417 blast to center field in his third at-bat.

In the same way it was good for the Angels to see their offense break out, it was also good for Mike Scioscia to not see a couple of his relievers on the mound.

Kevin Jepsen, Joe Smith and Houston Street did not have to pitch in Sunday’s finale which was vital for the Angels as they had all pitched extensively on the road trip.

Jepsen pitched in five of the 10 games on the trip, Smith pitched in six and Street pitched in five. Street did start to warm up in the ninth, but never came in the game.

Bad:

The Angels leave Oakland with a one game lead in the division, but are just 4-8 against the Athletics this season. The Angels finish the season with 43 games in 45 days and seven of those games will be against the A’s.

The Angels and A’s will face off four times next week in Anaheim and then in late September the teams will play three in Oakland – where the Angels are just 1-5 this season.

Sometimes teams just don’t match-up well against other teams, but if the Angels want to hold on to the division lead, they are going to need to find a way to beat the A’s head-to-head.

Mariners:

The AL West race has been centered on the Angels and the Athletics, but by no means is this only a two-team race.

Seattle is arguably playing the best baseball of any team in the division right now and with a very strong pitching staff, the Mariners are more than capable of catching either the A’s or the Angels.

The Mariners have a 2.28 ERA – the best in baseball – since the All-Star break, have won seven of their last 10 games and still have six games left against the A’s and seven left against the Angels.

As ESPN’s Buster Olney noted on Twitter, the Mariners were 11 1/2 games back of the A’s on July 27th. On August 25th, they’ll wake up with a one-game lead in the second Wild Card spot and also find themselves just five games behind the Athletics and six games behind the Angels.

Five National League Storylines To Watch

Believe it or not August is halfway over and the baseball season is racing to a finish. There are plenty of players, story lines and themes expected to develop over the final six weeks of the season as teams make their final pushes toward playoff berths.

This is by no means a comprehensive list, but here are five things – in no particular order – worth watching in the National League as the season winds down.

The Cubs:

The Cubs aren’t making the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t worth a look. When the Cubs called up prized prospect Javier Baez they instantly made themselves an entertaining team to watch.

With Baez, Starlin Casto, Anthony Rizzo, Arismendy Alcantara, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks the Cubs are full of young talent.

What makes the Cubs intriguing the rest of the way is the fact that expanded rosters are coming and the Cubs have even more talent in their farm system.

Depending on who the Cubs bring up in September, baseball fans – specifically Chicago fans – will get a glimpse of the future and see what those within the Cubs organization are so excited for the next few years.

The Brewers Pitching Staff:

The Brewers have a two game lead in the NL Central and an 85.2 percent chance of making the playoffs according to Baseball Prospectus, but losing a key member of the starting rotation is never easy.

Pitching is always important, but it seems this time of year the value of a strong staff is amplified. With Matt Garza on the DL (left rib cage strain) there has been a bit of extra pressure on the Brewers pitching staff to fill the void.

In the 11 games since Garza has been out, the Brewers have a team ERA of 2.78 so they are doing a good job of holding it together, but how long can that last?

The Brewers have been in first place for 143 days this season, but are only two games up on the Cardinals.

Cardinals Injuries (Molina, Wacha, Motte):

The Cardinals are two games back in the NL Central and have a game and a half lead in the NL Wild Card race, but how long can they keep it up?

St. Louis has been hit hard with injuries to key players this season and it makes some wonder how they’ve managed to stay afloat.

Michael Wacha has been on the DL since late June with a stress reaction in his right shoulder, Yadier Molina has been on the DL since early July after having thumb surgery and Jason Motte was recently sidelined with a lower back sprain.

While the injury news has been grim for the Cardinals this season, the good news is it looks like they are getting healthier.

Molina caught a bullpen session earlier this week and hopes to start swinging a bat next week while Wacha threw off flat ground this week and has a follow-up MRI set for Monday.

If all goes well, the Cardinals could get Wacha and Molina back in September which would obviously be a huge lift to the organization.

In the meantime, the team needs to continue to find ways to win games and hope there aren’t any setbacks.

The Giants:

The Giants are only a half game out of the Wild Card, but they’re lost six of their last seven games, are just 11-15 since the All-Star break and are falling fast.

San Francisco got off to a hot start this season, but but was sub-.500 in both June and July and are on track to do so again in August.

The Giants have won the World Series in two of the past four seasons so it would be foolish to count out a team with that sort of late-season experience, but lately they are not playing like a team poised for a deep October run.

Clayton Kershaw:

The Dodgers look to be on their way to a second straight NL West crown and if that turns out to be the case, it will be in large part thanks to Clayton Kershaw.

The Cy Young Award frontrunner is 14-2 with a 1.78 ERA this season and has won 11 straight decisions.

Kershaw is widely regarded as the best pitcher in baseball and although everyone knows how good he is, he’s on the list for one plain and simple reason.

Whenever he pitches, you should watch.

Regardless of how you feel about the Dodgers, watching Kershaw pitch is a great experience for any baseball fan.

Kershaw is truly one of those very special players that only comes around every so often and as the season winds down, it will be fun to watch him pitch on meaningful October nights.

Five American League Storylines To Watch

With roughly six weeks left in the baseball season, playoff chases are heating up and every call, game and managerial decision of contending teams will be under intense pressure and scrutiny.

As the games seemingly get more important, some teams in the hunt are going to need players to step up while other are going to look at their leaders and simply hope they continue to do what they’ve done all season long.

Here’s a quick look at five American League players and trends to watch as the season winds down. (Note: This list is in no particular order and a National List will be compiled this weekend as well)

Hisashi Iwakuma:

The Mariners enter play Friday a half game out of the Wild Card, but according to Baseball Prospectus, Seattle has a 50.6 percent chance of making the postseason. Everyone knows Felix Hernandez is the ace of the staff and all indications suggest Hernandez will finish the season strong and pitch like the player everyone knows he is.

However, the AL Wild Card race is likely going to come down to the very end and if the Mariners need Hernandez to win a game in the final week of play, Iwakuma may be pitching in a single elimination Wild Card contest.

Iwakuma is 11-6 with a 2.72 ERA this season and is 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA over his past nine starts.

The 33-year old right hander may not get the recognition of King Felix, but if the Mariners are able to get into October, Iwakuma will have played a major role.

Garrett Richards:

With each passing day, it’s looking more and more likely the Angels will be in the postseason for the first time since 2009. Baseball Prospectus calculates the Angels as having a 98.9 percent chance of playing in October. However, the real question is whether they will win the AL West and play in a best-of-five series, or clinch a Wild Card berth and play in a win or go home game against the other Wild Card winner.

The Angels begin play Friday two games back in the AL West and five games up in the Wild Card.

A large part of the Angels success this season can be attributed to the breakout season of Garrett Richards, who is 12-4 with a 2.54 ERA this season. Although Richards has been great all season, he enters Friday’s start having thrown 159 2/3 innings – the most in his professional career, including the minors.

Richards threw 145 innings in 2013 and exceeded the 140 inning mark twice in the minors (2010 and 2011) but as the season wears on, his work load is something to look at.

The 26-year old has a 2.48 ERA in five starts since the All-Star break so he has not shown any signs of slowing down, but as the innings continue to mount – and the pressure associated with each inning rises – it will be important for the Angels to keep an eye on arguably the most important member of their rotation.

A’s Offense:

Odds are the Oakland Athletics are going to play in October for the third consecutive season, but if their offense doesn’t get going, their postseason may be brief – for the third consecutive season.

Pitching wins in October and Billy Beane has made sure the Athletics rotation will be formidable come the playoffs, but offense is still a big part of the game and right now the A’s don’t have a very good one, at least not consistently.

Since the A’s traded their power hitting left fielder, Yoenis Cespedes, to the Boston Red Sox, they have gone 7-7 and averaged just 3.8 runs per game. When Cespedes was on the Oakland roster, they had averaged five runs per game.

But, by no means is it time to panic for fans of the green and gold.

Jon Lester has been as advertised, going 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA since the trade and the A’s still have the best record in baseball.

There is time to get the offense rolling again, but if the A’s struggle to score for the rest of the season and exit the postseason in the first round again, many will blame the Cespedes trade.

Justin Verlander:

With David Price, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello, the Tigers rotation is among the best in the game, but something just hasn’t been the same this year.

Recently, when you thought of the Tigers pitching staffs, the thought process always centered around Justin Verlander.

However, Verlander’s 2014 season has been atypical as he is 10-11 with a 4.76 ERA. The Tigers right-hander was recently diagnosed with inflammation in his right shoulder, although he is not expected to go on the Disabled List, instead it looks like the Tigers will just give him some rest and skip him once in the rotation.

Baseball Prospectus says there is a 65.9 percent chance the Tigers will make the playoffs – they are currently a half game back in the AL Central and a half game up in the AL Wild Card – but if they get there, how will they use Verlander?

The right-hander is 7-5 with a 3.28 ERA in 15 postseason starts, but will the Tigers treat him like the ace of their staff who has proven himself in October? Or, like a 31-year old with an ERA just a bit under 5.00?

It will be interesting to see how the rest of the season develops for Verlander and looking ahead it is also worth watching what the Tigers do as they owe Verlander $28 million a season for the next fie years.

The Royals:

Could this be the year?

The Kansas City Royals have not been in the postseason since 1985, but have won nine of their last 20 games and find themselves with a half game lead in the AL Central.

Baseball Prospectus gives the Royals a 58.8 chance at making the playoffs and while it would be cool to see the Royals win the division because a one-game playoff could not only present a one-and-done scenario, but it may also present a situation where they play on the road and the folks of Kansas City do not get to experience a home playoff game.

However, with the playoff drought creeping up on 30 years, anyway the Royals manage to wiggle into the playoffs would be a great story.

Kansas City is 18-8 since the All-Star break and although they may lack some postseason experience, it’s going to be fun to watch this team try to close out the AL Central.