Category: Cubs
3 reasons why: Chicago Cubs will win the World Series
As the 2016 season approaches, I will be taking a look at the 10 teams with the best odds of winning the World Series and examining three reasons why each may ultimately hoist the trophy. Today’s team:
Chicago Cubs (4/1 odds to win World Series): It has to happen eventually, right? Although the Cubs haven’t won the World Series since 1908, there’s no way that streak can live on forever. The folks in and around Wrigleyville thought they had a chance to host a parade in 2015, but perhaps 2016 will be the year. There’s plenty of reason for optimism.
Young, talented roster: The Cubs have built from the ground up. The front office did a good job bolstering the Minor League system and all that patience and acquired talent is paying dividends. The Cubs are not only loaded with talent, but they’re loaded with young talent. Six of the club’s eight projected positional starters are 26 years old or younger. And if that’s not enough youth, the organization showed off its depth as it placed six prospects on MLBpipeline.com’s Top 100 list.
Strong off-season: Winning 97 games is a major accomplishment, but the Cubs 2015 season ended in disappointment. Looking ahead to 2016, that’s a good thing. Not only do the Cubs have new motivation, but they also went out and got some key players. Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist are the two headliners, but don’t discount the addition of John Lackey either. Heyward gives the Cubs a Gold Glove outfielder, Zobrist gives manager Joe Maddon a versatile player that can be utilized in numerous roles and Lackey provides the team and rotation with another strong veteran presence.
Jed Hoyer, Theo Epstein, Joe Maddon: Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein have reversed a curse before (2004 Red Sox) and have shown a desire to do the same in Chicago. The Cubs built their core through the draft and have made big free agent splashes each of the last two years – Jon Lester and Jason Heyward – to fill in the gaps. Hoyer and Epstein certainly know how to build a team and although the Cubs look solid right now, it’s hard to predict what the team may need in the middle of the season. No need to worry though, Hoyer and Epstein and clearly willing to be aggressive and have a strong desire to win. So if it becomes apparent the Cubs need to acquire a player, it’s a safe bet the front office will certainly try. If having a strong front office wasn’t enough, the Cubs also have one of the best managers in the game in Joe Maddon. The three Manager of the Year Awards serve as validation, but Maddon’s numbers speak for themselves. Maddon has managed 10 full Major League seasons and has a winning record in seven of them.
Cubs still favorite, D-backs make huge jump in 2016 World Series odds
A trio of teams – the Cubs, Red Sox and D-backs – have garnered the bulk of the offseason headlines thus far.
Yes, plenty of teams have made moves to put themselves in a better position going forward, but the three teams mentioned above have made the biggest, most significant moves and the betting lines reflect that.
On November 2, the day after the World Series concluded, Bovada, an online casino and sportsbook, posted odds for the 2016 World Series. The Cubs (11/1) were the odds-on favorite while the Red Sox (20/1) were in the middle of the pack and the D-backs (50/1) seemed like a long shot.
Fast forward through the Winter Meetings, into the middle of December, and plenty of things have changed.
The Cubs are still the favorites, but the odds are now 8/1 after the club strengthened the rotation and signed John Lackey, in addition to bolstering an already potent lineup with the additions of Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward.
Boston got a head start on the off-season wheeling and dealing when it traded four prospects to San Diego in exchange for Craig Kimbrel. The Kimbrel trade was a big move that strengthened a ‘pen that finished the season with a 4.24 ERA, 26th in all of baseball. However, it turns out it was just a precursor as Dave Dombrowski still had some tricks up his sleeve.
The Red Sox made another big splash when they inked David Price to a monster contract and as a result, their World Series odds jumped from 20/1 to 9/1.
But perhaps the biggest off-season shocker took place just before the Winter Meetings when Arizona landed Zack Greinke. Not only did the Greinke signing give a tremendous boost to Arizona’s starting rotation, but it also subtraced an ace from the Dodgers’ staff and kept the Giants, a division rival and the other finalist in the Greinke sweepstakes, from acquiring the superstar.
Of course, once the D-backs added Greinke it was a clear sign that the team was in “win now” mode, so Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa went out and made another bold move, trading for Shelby Miller.
The D-backs finished second in the National League in runs scored a season ago and added two quality arms to the rotation which is why the odds went all the way from 50/1 to 20/1.
Although the Giants missed on Greinke, the club added Jeff Samardzija and saw odds swing from 20/1 to 8/1.
While all those changes were significant and interesting, there is still plenty of offseason left, which means time for more deals (what happens if the Cubs get another pitcher?).
AFL Mesa at Scottsdale 10.20.15
Notable Performances:
— Lefthander Adalberto Mejia, the Giants No. 12 prospect, had an up and down start. Right out of the gate Mejia struck out the side in the first inning and looked like he had great stuff.
But then he walked the bases loaded – his only three walks of the evening — and gave up a run in the second.
Overall, there was more good than bad in Mejia’s start as he finished five innings and allowed one run on one hit. He also struck out seven.
Best Plays:
— Jeimer Candelario, the Cubs 20th ranked prospect, is really making a name for himself so far in the Arizona Fall League. The third baseman was named co-player of the week after going 8-for-10 through the first three games, then made a nice play defensively Tuesday night.
Candelario fielded a hot shot behind the bag at third and after an initial bobble, made a strong throw across the diamond for the out. Really impressive arm strength.
— Marlins prospect J.T. Riddle made the play of the night with a diving stop up the middle. The shortstop made a nice stop on a hard-hit ground ball and turned what looked to be a hit into a 6-4-3 double play.
Riddle then homered in the next half inning. Read more about his night on MLBpipeline.com.
Best At-Bat:
— Indians No. 2 prospect Clint Frazier hit a massive opposite-field three-run homer in the third inning. Frazier is off to a great start in the AFL and has hit really well over the first two weeks.
— Candelario didn’t want to be outdone so in the sixth inning he hit a homer of his own. The Chicago farmhand hit a massive two-run shot to out to right that would have been gone in any ballpark.
Worth Mentioning:
— Pierce Johnson, the Cubs No. 7 prospect, had mixed results in his outing, similar to his first AFL start. The right-hander threw four innings and allowed three runs – the Frazier homer – on three hits. In the first inning it appeared Johnson was having trouble picking up the signs from the catcher so that may have been a cause for some of the struggles, but either way his stuff wasn’t crisp.
In the bullpen, Johnson said he didn’t have a good feel for his off-speed pitches and it looked like that carried over into the game.
AFL 10.14.15 Glendale at Mesa
Notable Performances:
— Athletics prospect Sean Manaea got the start for Mesa. The left-hander, ranked as the No. 3 prospect in Oakland’s organization, was a big piece in the trade that sent Ben Zobrist to the Royals at this year’s Trade Deadline.
Manaea missed the first half of 2014 with injuries, but over the second half of the year he showed why expectations are so high. In 14 starts, Manaea posted a 2.66 ERA and struck out 51 batters in 42 2/3 innings.
On Wednesday, the left-hander got off to a bit of a shaky start — allowed one run on two hits in the first — but set down 10 in a row to finish his outing. Manaea finished four innings and allowed one run on two hits.
Best Play(s):
— Angels prospect Eric Aguilera made a diving stop at first base to take away a hit in the first inning. He also had two hits and two RBIs.
— Pirates No. 2 prospect Austin Meadows made an impressive throw from right field to home plate. The throw was right on line and one-hopped the plate. On the 20-80 scouting scale, one scout gave it a 55, another a 60. However, later in the game he had a similar opportunity and the throw wasn’t nearly as impressive.
The arm strength is there, the consistency needs some work.
Worth Mentioning:
— Angels catching prospect Stephen McGee hit just two home runs in 68 games this season, but he tapped into that power in the second inning with a home run to left. The prospect later doubled and caught a runner stealing with a real quick pop and perfect throw to second.
— Cubs No. 19 prospect Jeimer Candelario two well hit singles to right in first two at-bats. Then showed a little bit of pop with a ground rule double to right-center in his third trip to the plate.
AFL Opening Day: Mesa Solar Sox at Glendale Desert Dogs 10/13/15
The 2015 Arizona Fall League is officially underway and in addition to the articles I will be writing for mlb.com and mlbpipeline.com, I’m going to be adding some additional tidbits to the blog. These will be trends/players/plays that stood out, but that didn’t make it into any articles for one reason or another. This will also be a spot where I answer questions sent to me that I don’t get to on Twitter.
Notable Performances:
– Chad Pinder, Athletics No. 7 prospect, hit a pair of homers and finished 3-for-5 with four RBIs. Oakland’s organizational hitting prospect of the year and the Texas League Player of the year hit 15 homers this season and neither of his homers were cheapies. Wednesday was a strong start to the Arizona Fall League for Pinder as he hit the ball hard all afternoon.
– Dodgers No. 24 prospect Kyle Farmer didn’t show a lot of power during the year, so it was a bit surprising to see him pop one over the 380’ sign in left-center. Farmer also had a walk-off single. You can read more about him here.
Best Play:
– Renato Nunez, the sixth ranked prospect in the A’s organization, is still developing as a defender, but showed some flash in the second inning. Nunez, playing third, dove to his left and made a great stop on a hard-hit ground ball, but then rushed and made an errant throw across the diamond.
Nunez redeemed himself a bit in the fifth as he had to back up to field a big hop behind the bag and made the long throw with ease.
Worth Mentioning:
– Phillies 16th ranked prospect Andrew Knapp was named Philadelphia’s organizational hitting prospect of the year and showed why with a booming double off the left-center field wall.
– Brian Holmes, selected in the 13th round of the 2012 Draft by the Astros, isn’t on the club’s top-prospect list, but flashed some potential in his two innings of work. The left-hander struck out 115 batters in 101.1 innings this year so he has strikeout stuff, but struggled a bit with command in his two scoreless innings Tuesday.
– Phillies top prospect J.P. Crawford went 1-for-4 and wasn’t all that impressive at the plate, but made a few athletics plays defensively. Pretty easy to see what all the hype is about.
– Corey Black, the No. 18 prospect in the Cubs organization had 101 strikeouts in 86 innings of AA this season so it’s obvious he has the stuff necessary to put hitters away. Black threw one inning Wednesday and struck out a pair.
10 Things I’m Watching In 2015: Lester, Shields, Scherzer
As we count down to Spring Training, here’s the eighth installment of my ’10 Things I’m Watching In 2015′ series. Today’s topic: Jon Lester, Max Scherzer and James Shields.
How will Scherzer Lester and Shields fare in the National League?
Generally speaking the American League is known for offense and the National League is known for pitching. The DH contributes a lot to this fact and it is likely a reason that big name free agent pitchers often opt to pitch in the National League.
When the 2014 season ended there were three big-name, free agent pitchers on the market and all three of them – Jon Lester, Max Scherzer and James Shields – opted to make the transition from the AL to the NL.
While Scherzer spent the first two seasons of his career in the NL, Lester and Shields have never pitched for a NL team. Each of them have spent nine seasons in the American League.
The trio of pitchers have combined for six All Star games and a Cy Young Award (Scherzer) and considering they all have strong stuff, it’s likely they will do just fine in the NL. However, it may be interesting to watch their transitions, especially over the first couple months as they get used to new parks, lineups and catchers.
Also, I wonder which one of them is the best hitter? And how long will it take Lester to collect his first hit?
Previous Entries:
10 Things I’m Watching In 2015: Chicago Cubs
Baseball is finally here. To some it may feel like the season just ended, but to those that live and breathe baseball, it may feel like it’s been gone for an eternity. Either way, there are 10 days left until the first official team workouts here in Arizona and to help pass the time I will be releasing a daily blog post about 10 things I’m excited to watch in 2015.
These posts are in no particular order, so if I list your team or favorite player 10th, fifth or first, there’s no reason to read too much into it. I’m anxious for the upcoming baseball season and these are 10 reasons why:
Things I’m watching in 2015:
Cubs
It’s hard not to be excited and/or curious about the Cubs in 2015. After a tremendous off season there will certainly be a lot of eyes not only on Opening Night, but throughout the entire season.
While the Cubs made plenty of moves over the past few months, the biggest were the additions of Joe Maddon and Jon Lester.
It’s hard to argue with Maddon’s resume. Maddon had a winning record in six of his last seven seasons with the Rays and his team won 90 or more games in five of those seasons. Meanwhile, the Cubs have won 90 or more games just once (2008) since the year 2000.
While hiring Maddon would have constituted a solid off-season, the Cubs weren’t done as they then added Jon Lester via a six year deal worth $155 million.
Lester is coming off a season in which he posted a 2.46 ERA, but will have to adjust to the National League – although it’s hard to imagine that being any sort of drastic adjustment for someone who has been as successful as Lester.
The Cubs also upgraded their rotation when the brought back Jason Hamel. Although Hamel struggled with the A’s, he was 8-5 with a 2.98 ERA as a Cub last season.
Lester and Maddon were clearly the Cubs two biggest moves of the off season, but they aren’t the only reason, I’ll be watching the Cubs this season. Dexter Fowler was a solid addition to the Cubs outfield and the progress of Javier Baez will be interesting to monitor as well.
Jake Arrieta is also coming off of his best ever season as he posted a career high in wins (10) and a career low in ERA (2.53)
Kris Bryant has generated a ton of hype and whenever the Cubs top prospect makes his Major League debut, it will undoubtedly be a major story surrounding the team.
The Cubs are littered with players to watch this season and although it may take them a while to learn to win and completely change the culture in Chicago, the Cubs are going to be one of the most fascinating teams to watch next season.
Trade Deadline Revisited
As soon as the July 31 Trade Deadline was completed, the A’s and Tigers appeared to be the big winners.
The Athletics had acquired Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel a bit before the Trade Deadline and then acquired Jon Lester in a blockbuster move while the Tigers landed David Price.
As it turned out, those teams went a combined 0-4 in the postseason and the real prize of the Deadline may have been a 31-year old pitcher from Mobile, Alabama.
The San Francisco Giants acquired Jake Peavy, for a couple of pitching prospects, a few days before the Trade Deadline. Peavy went 8-4 with a 2.17 ERA in 12 starts for the National League champions to finish the regular season and is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in two postseason starts.
Now it remains to be seen whether or not the Giants will resign Peavy next season, but after winning the National League pennant and reaching a third World Series in the past five years, it’s hard to argue the move wasn’t a success for the Giants.
In addition to the Peavy trade, plenty of other teams were active at the Trade Deadline. Here’s a quick rundown on how everyone performed with their new teams:
A’s acquired Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel: In 16 starts with the Athletics, Samardzija went 8-8 with a 3.14 ERA. Hammel went 2-6 with a 4.26 ERA in 12 starts.
Cubs acquire Addison Russell, Billy McKinney and Dan Straily: Russell, the No. 5 prospect according to MLBpipeline.com, was the prize of this trade for the Cubs and he hit .294 in 50 games with the Cubs AA affiliate.
The Athletics acquired Jon Lester, Jonny Gomes and cash from the Red Sox for Yoenis Cespedes: Lester went 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA in 11 starts, but was also on the mound when the A’s collapse began in the AL Wild Card game. Gomes played in 34 games for the A’s and hit .234 Cespedes hit .269 with five homers and 33 RBI for Boston.
Then, the A’s traded Tommy Milone to the Twins in exchange for Sam Fuld:
Milone appeared in six games, five starts, for the Twins while Fuld played in 53 games and hit .210 for Oakland.
The Cardinals acquired John Lackey from the Red Sox for Joe Kelly and Allen Craig: Lackey went 3-3 with a 4.30 ERA in 10 starts for the Cardinals while Kelly went 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA in 10 starts for Boston and Craig hit .128 in 29 games.
The Brewers traded a pair of minor leaguers (outfielder Mitch Haniger and pitcher Anthony Banda) to the Diamondbacks for Gerardo Parra: Parra hit .268 in 46 games for Milwaukee.
The Padres continued selling and traded Chris Denorfia to the Mariners for Abraham Almonte and minor league pitcher Stephen Kohlscheen: Denorfia hit .195 in 32 games with the Mariners.
A day after trading Justin Masterson to the Cardinals, the Indians traded Asdrubal Cabrera to the Nationals for Zach Walters: Masterson was a disappointment with the Cardinals as he went 3-3 in nine games, six starts, with a 7.04 ERA. Cabrera hit .229 in 49 games with the Nationals and Walters hit .130 in 70 games for the Indians.
The Red Sox traded Andrew Miller to the Orioles for minor league pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez: Miller appeared in 23 games for the Orioles and posted a 1.35 ERA.
Boston was very active at the deadline and concluded its day after trading Stephen Drew to the Yankees for Kelly Johnson: Drew hit .150 in 46 games with the Yankees.
In addition to Drew, the Yankees acquired Martin Prado. In order to get Prado, the Yankees sent Peter O’Brien and either cash or a player to be named later to the Diamondbacks: Prado hit .316 in 37 games as a Yankee.
The Braves acquired Emilio Bonifacio, James Russell and cash from the Cubs in exchange for minor league catcher Victor Caratini: Bonifacio appeared in 41 games for the Braves and hit .212, while Russell posted a 2.22 ERA in 22 appearances with Atlanta.
The Marlins sent outfielder Jake Marisnick to the Astros in return for Jarred Cosart and Kike Hernandez: Marisnick hit .272 in 51 games with his new team and Cosart went 4-4 with a 2.39 ERA in 10 starts with his new club.
The Tigers acquired David Price, the Mariners picked up Austin Jackson and the Rays received Drew Smyly and Nick Franklin: Price went 4-4 with a 3.59 ERA in 11 starts for the Tigers while Austin Jackson hit .229 in 54 games with the Mariners. He also stole 11 bases. In Tampa Bay, Smyly went 3-1 in seven starts and posted a 1.70 ERA and Franklin hit .206 in 11 games.
Obviously these stats do not tell the whole story of who won or lost a trade or whether it was even for both teams as contract situations, cash, prospects and plenty of other factors are up for consideration, but in the break between the championship series and the World Series, it is interesting to look back and see how all those Deadline deals stacked up.
Five National League Storylines To Watch
Believe it or not August is halfway over and the baseball season is racing to a finish. There are plenty of players, story lines and themes expected to develop over the final six weeks of the season as teams make their final pushes toward playoff berths.
This is by no means a comprehensive list, but here are five things – in no particular order – worth watching in the National League as the season winds down.
The Cubs:
The Cubs aren’t making the playoffs, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t worth a look. When the Cubs called up prized prospect Javier Baez they instantly made themselves an entertaining team to watch.
With Baez, Starlin Casto, Anthony Rizzo, Arismendy Alcantara, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks the Cubs are full of young talent.
What makes the Cubs intriguing the rest of the way is the fact that expanded rosters are coming and the Cubs have even more talent in their farm system.
Depending on who the Cubs bring up in September, baseball fans – specifically Chicago fans – will get a glimpse of the future and see what those within the Cubs organization are so excited for the next few years.
The Brewers Pitching Staff:
The Brewers have a two game lead in the NL Central and an 85.2 percent chance of making the playoffs according to Baseball Prospectus, but losing a key member of the starting rotation is never easy.
Pitching is always important, but it seems this time of year the value of a strong staff is amplified. With Matt Garza on the DL (left rib cage strain) there has been a bit of extra pressure on the Brewers pitching staff to fill the void.
In the 11 games since Garza has been out, the Brewers have a team ERA of 2.78 so they are doing a good job of holding it together, but how long can that last?
The Brewers have been in first place for 143 days this season, but are only two games up on the Cardinals.
Cardinals Injuries (Molina, Wacha, Motte):
The Cardinals are two games back in the NL Central and have a game and a half lead in the NL Wild Card race, but how long can they keep it up?
St. Louis has been hit hard with injuries to key players this season and it makes some wonder how they’ve managed to stay afloat.
Michael Wacha has been on the DL since late June with a stress reaction in his right shoulder, Yadier Molina has been on the DL since early July after having thumb surgery and Jason Motte was recently sidelined with a lower back sprain.
While the injury news has been grim for the Cardinals this season, the good news is it looks like they are getting healthier.
Molina caught a bullpen session earlier this week and hopes to start swinging a bat next week while Wacha threw off flat ground this week and has a follow-up MRI set for Monday.
If all goes well, the Cardinals could get Wacha and Molina back in September which would obviously be a huge lift to the organization.
In the meantime, the team needs to continue to find ways to win games and hope there aren’t any setbacks.
The Giants:
The Giants are only a half game out of the Wild Card, but they’re lost six of their last seven games, are just 11-15 since the All-Star break and are falling fast.
San Francisco got off to a hot start this season, but but was sub-.500 in both June and July and are on track to do so again in August.
The Giants have won the World Series in two of the past four seasons so it would be foolish to count out a team with that sort of late-season experience, but lately they are not playing like a team poised for a deep October run.
Clayton Kershaw:
The Dodgers look to be on their way to a second straight NL West crown and if that turns out to be the case, it will be in large part thanks to Clayton Kershaw.
The Cy Young Award frontrunner is 14-2 with a 1.78 ERA this season and has won 11 straight decisions.
Kershaw is widely regarded as the best pitcher in baseball and although everyone knows how good he is, he’s on the list for one plain and simple reason.
Whenever he pitches, you should watch.
Regardless of how you feel about the Dodgers, watching Kershaw pitch is a great experience for any baseball fan.
Kershaw is truly one of those very special players that only comes around every so often and as the season winds down, it will be fun to watch him pitch on meaningful October nights.
The Cubs Are Exciting
I’m excited to watch the Cubs.
There I said it. It’s August 4th, the Cubs are 16 games under .500 and 13 games out of first place, but the last two months of the Cubs season are sure to be worth watching.
The Cubs will promote infielder Javier Baez, ranked as the Cubs No. 2 prospect on MLB.com’s list of the Top 20 Cubs prospects, and he is expected to make his Major League Debut on Tuesday.
Baez, the ninth overall pick in the 2011 First-Year Player Draft, is batting .260 with 23 homers and 80 RBIs in 104 games at Triple-A Iowa this season. He’s also hitting .283 with runners in scoring position.
However, in the 20 games since the Triple-A All-Star break, the 21-year old has hit .342 with nine homers.
Baez got off to a slow start this season, but his average has increased each month – .172 in April, .250 in May, .275 in June, .300 in July and .300 in three games in August – showing not only his talent, but his ability to adjust, learn the league.
Although the numbers are impressive, Baez’s call-up is about more than statistics.
It’s about hope. It’s about the future.
Yes, Cubs fans have been waiting for future for a long, long time and other prospects such as Arismendy Alcantara (the No. 4 prospect) and Kyle Hendricks (No. 19) have already debuted this season.
But this feels different.
Baez – along with Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Jorge Soler – is one of the most hyped Cubs prospects in awhile.
Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein have long had a plan to rebuild the Cubs and although it may have been too lengthy for some – as baseball rebuilds often are – the prospects are starting to come up and that is always an exciting time.
Baez’s promotion doesn’t guarantee wins, it doesn’t guarantee the Cubs will win the World Series in 2015 or even in 2016, but it does make the future a lot brighter.
It is always exciting to watch a new player come into the league especially one with the hype and talent of Baez.
With a line-up that consists of Alcantara, Baez, Rizzo and Castro the Cubs have become a team that die-hard fans and those interested in the building blocks of franchises should watch over the next couple of months.
I’ll be watching as well.
Boor on Baseball 