Category: baseball games

2016 MLB win/loss projections

Team 2015 win total 2016 Over/Under

(Las Vegas Superbook)

2016 FanGraphs win projections Personal Prediction
Baltimore Orioles 81 78.5 78 Under
Boston Red Sox 78 87.5 91 Over
New York Yankees 87 86.5 85 Under
Tampa Bay Rays 80 81.5 82 Under
Toronto Blue Jays 93 86.5 83 Under
Chicago White Sox 76 80.5 81 Over
Cleveland Indians 81 85.5 85 Over
Detroit Tigers 74 80.5 81 Over
Kansas City Royals 95 83.5 79 Over
Minnesota Twins 83 79.5 78 Under
Houston Astros 86 88.5 86 Under
Los Angeles Angels 85 81.5 81 Under
Oakland A’s 68 75.5 79 Over
Seattle Mariners 76 82.5 83 Over
Texas Rangers 88 83.5 81 Over
Atlanta Braves 67 67.5 68 Over
Miami Marlins 71 78.5 81 Under
New York Mets 90 89.5 85 Over
Philadelphia Phillies 63 64.5 66 Over
Washington Nationals 83 89.5 88 Over
Chicago Cubs 97 93.5 94 Under
Cincinnati Reds 64 69.5 73 Under
Milwaukee Brewers 68 69.5 69 Under
Pittsburgh Pirates 98 86.5 84 Over
St. Louis Cardinals 100 87.5 84 Over
Arizona Diamondbacks 79 81.5 79 Over
Colorado Rockies 68 71.5 74 Under
Los Angeles Dodgers 92 89.5 91 Over
San Diego Padres 74 73.5 74 Under
San Francisco Giants 84 88.5 85 Over

Quick Thoughts:

  • I’m taking 17 overs and 13 unders, which means absolutely nothing and will likely be wrong as there are so many variables that take place throughout the course of a season.
  • FanGraphs is split down the middle and predicts 15 teams to go under and 15 to go over.
  • After having three 90-win teams a season ago, the NL Central is only projected to have one team reach the 90-win mark this season – the Cubs. This doesn’t mean the division lacks talent, but last year was such an anomoly that a regression is almost guaranteed.
  • Despite all the hype the D-backs generated over the offseason the NL West is expected to be a two-team race between the Dodgers and Giants. Both Las Vegas and FanGraphs expect the D-backs to finish third.
  • The Red Sox are expected to take a big leap forward this season after adding David Price and Craig Kimbrel to the pitching staff. After winning 78 games last year, Boston is expected to win the AL East in 2016.

AFL 11.11.15 Surprise-Mesa

Notable Performance:

— Marlins No. 6 prospect Austin Dean flashed some power and speed with an RBI triple to center field in the third inning. Dean has a hit in four of his last five games and the triple was his second of the AFL. Dean reached base after all four of his plate appearances and had a solid all-around game.

Read more about Dean on MLBpipeline.com.

Best Play:

— Athletics prospect Chad Pinder roped a ball down the left field line and tried to stretch a single into a double, challenging the arm of Yankees prospect Tyler Austin. Turns out it was a bad idea. Austin fired a one hopper from left field to the bag at second base and easily retired Pinder.

— However, Pinder showed off his own defensive skills in the fourth. The second baseman fielded a ball the middle and, with momentum carrying him into shallow left, made a leaping throw to first for the out.

Best At-Bat:

— Yankees No. 5 prospect Gary Sanchez continues to impress at the plate. The catcher hit his seventh homer of the AFL in his first at-bat Wednesday afternoon as he blasted a two run homer out to left.

Sanchez hit 18 homers in 93 games this season.

Worth Mentioning:

— Cardinals middle infield prospect Aledmys Diaz hit his third homer of the Fall, a solo shot to left.

— Brewers prospect Adrian Houser threw five shutout innings in his last AFL start and early Wednesday it looked like he was poised for another strong outing.

Houser faced the minimum through two innings, but lost control in the third. Five of the first six batters reached base in the third inning and Houser eventually left the game after allowing three runs on seven hits in three innings of work. The right-hander threw 32 of 54 pitches for strikes.

— Cubs No. 25 LHP, Rob Zastryzny had a strong outing Wednesday. The left-hander made an early mistake – which Sanchez crushed for a homer – but otherwise he was solid. Zastryzny threw four innings, allowing two runs on three hits. He threw 42 of 68 pitches for strikes, walking one and striking out four.

— Angels catching prospect Stephen McGee put together a nice game at the plate on Wednesday. McGee had a four-RBI day as he went 3-for-4 at the plate.