Category: AL West
10 Things I’m Watching In 2015: American League West
As we count down to Spring Training, here’s the sixth installment of my ’10 Things I’m Watching In 2015′ series. Today’s topic: the American League West.
Ultimately the Angels ran away with the AL West in 2014, but things could be very different this time around. Yes, the Angels have another great squad, but several AL West teams made big moves over the off season and it looks as if this may be the best division in baseball. The NL Central will rival the AL West for that title, but either way the race out West will be fun to watch and will likely come down to the season’s final days.
Angels:
After posting a 98 win season in 2014, it was not all that surprising that the Angels didn’t go out and completely retool their roster over the off season. The Angels 2015 lineup will look a lot like the one that ended the 2014 season.
A healthy Garrett Richards will be a welcomed face to the rotation, but it also looks like the Angels may start the season without Josh Hamilton.
Although the Angels didn’t make a ton of big moves over the off season, the team did trade Howie Kendrick to the Dodgers, so second base will be a position to watch both offensively and defensively.
A’s:
The A’s got off to a strong start last season and looked like they would easily win the division, but ultimately struggled down the stretch.The late season collapse was followed by a whirlwind of an off season and now the 2015 season will begin with an Oakland roster that hardly resembles that of 2014.
Across the infield the A’s began 2014 with Brandon Moss, Eric Sogard, Jed Lowrie and Josh Donaldson, but this season the projected Opening Day lineup consists of Ike Davis, Ben Zobrist, Marcus Semien and Brett Lawrie, with Billy Butler at DH.
Billy Beane completely changed the makeup of the team over the off season, but the A’s have been to the playoffs in three consecutive seasons so it’s hard to count them out.
Also, it’s important to note that the Athletics will once again feature a strong pitching staff – a fact that will keep them in a lot of games.
Despite losing Jon Lester (not that anyone thought he’d resign or stay in Oakland) and trading away Jeff Samardzija, the A’s will still have a rotation that consists of Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, Jesse Chavez, Jesse Hahn and Drew Pomeranz.
Oakland’s rotation may be impressive, but it might not even be the best in the division.
Mariners: With arguably the best pitcher in the American League in Felix Hernandez, it’s quite possible the Mariners have the best rotation as well. Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma are a nasty 1-2 punch and will win the Mariners in a lot of games.
While the pitching was there last season, Seattle often struggled to score runs in 2014 – a problem the teams hopes will be solved with the addition of Nelson Cruz.
Cruz hit 40 home runs a season ago and will make the top of the Mariners line-up, along with Austin Jackson and Robinson Cano, a lot more potent than it was just a season ago.
Astros: Just as the A’s made several changes, so did the Astros. The 2015 Astros will look a lot different than the 2014 version – including new manager A.J. Hinch – and appear to be in a much better position to compete.
To bolster the offense, the Astros added Evan Gattis, but most of the reshuffling happened in the bullpen as the Astros added Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek.
Gregerson and Neshek – both right-handers – are coming off some of the best seasons in their careers. Gregorson posted a career-best 2.12 ERA last season while Neshek posted a 1.87 ERA and was selected to his first All Star game.
Jed Lowrie will also be a nice addition to the middle of the infield as he returns to Houston after a productive two seasons in Oakland.
Rangers: Every team deal with injuries, but the amount the Rangers faced last season was crazy.
First and foremost Rangers fans have to be excited about starting 2015 with a healthy Prince Fielder. That fact alone should be a boost to the offense, but regaining Fielder is not the only significant move the Rangers have made.
Late in the off season the Rangers made perhaps their most significant off season move when they traded for Yovani Gallardo.
Gallardo figured to fit into the middle of the Rangers rotation and has started 30 or more games in six straight seasons – a good sign for a team that has struggled with injures and had a hard time keeping players on the field.
Previous Entries:
Trade Deadline Revisited
As soon as the July 31 Trade Deadline was completed, the A’s and Tigers appeared to be the big winners.
The Athletics had acquired Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel a bit before the Trade Deadline and then acquired Jon Lester in a blockbuster move while the Tigers landed David Price.
As it turned out, those teams went a combined 0-4 in the postseason and the real prize of the Deadline may have been a 31-year old pitcher from Mobile, Alabama.
The San Francisco Giants acquired Jake Peavy, for a couple of pitching prospects, a few days before the Trade Deadline. Peavy went 8-4 with a 2.17 ERA in 12 starts for the National League champions to finish the regular season and is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in two postseason starts.
Now it remains to be seen whether or not the Giants will resign Peavy next season, but after winning the National League pennant and reaching a third World Series in the past five years, it’s hard to argue the move wasn’t a success for the Giants.
In addition to the Peavy trade, plenty of other teams were active at the Trade Deadline. Here’s a quick rundown on how everyone performed with their new teams:
A’s acquired Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel: In 16 starts with the Athletics, Samardzija went 8-8 with a 3.14 ERA. Hammel went 2-6 with a 4.26 ERA in 12 starts.
Cubs acquire Addison Russell, Billy McKinney and Dan Straily: Russell, the No. 5 prospect according to MLBpipeline.com, was the prize of this trade for the Cubs and he hit .294 in 50 games with the Cubs AA affiliate.
The Athletics acquired Jon Lester, Jonny Gomes and cash from the Red Sox for Yoenis Cespedes: Lester went 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA in 11 starts, but was also on the mound when the A’s collapse began in the AL Wild Card game. Gomes played in 34 games for the A’s and hit .234 Cespedes hit .269 with five homers and 33 RBI for Boston.
Then, the A’s traded Tommy Milone to the Twins in exchange for Sam Fuld:
Milone appeared in six games, five starts, for the Twins while Fuld played in 53 games and hit .210 for Oakland.
The Cardinals acquired John Lackey from the Red Sox for Joe Kelly and Allen Craig: Lackey went 3-3 with a 4.30 ERA in 10 starts for the Cardinals while Kelly went 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA in 10 starts for Boston and Craig hit .128 in 29 games.
The Brewers traded a pair of minor leaguers (outfielder Mitch Haniger and pitcher Anthony Banda) to the Diamondbacks for Gerardo Parra: Parra hit .268 in 46 games for Milwaukee.
The Padres continued selling and traded Chris Denorfia to the Mariners for Abraham Almonte and minor league pitcher Stephen Kohlscheen: Denorfia hit .195 in 32 games with the Mariners.
A day after trading Justin Masterson to the Cardinals, the Indians traded Asdrubal Cabrera to the Nationals for Zach Walters: Masterson was a disappointment with the Cardinals as he went 3-3 in nine games, six starts, with a 7.04 ERA. Cabrera hit .229 in 49 games with the Nationals and Walters hit .130 in 70 games for the Indians.
The Red Sox traded Andrew Miller to the Orioles for minor league pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez: Miller appeared in 23 games for the Orioles and posted a 1.35 ERA.
Boston was very active at the deadline and concluded its day after trading Stephen Drew to the Yankees for Kelly Johnson: Drew hit .150 in 46 games with the Yankees.
In addition to Drew, the Yankees acquired Martin Prado. In order to get Prado, the Yankees sent Peter O’Brien and either cash or a player to be named later to the Diamondbacks: Prado hit .316 in 37 games as a Yankee.
The Braves acquired Emilio Bonifacio, James Russell and cash from the Cubs in exchange for minor league catcher Victor Caratini: Bonifacio appeared in 41 games for the Braves and hit .212, while Russell posted a 2.22 ERA in 22 appearances with Atlanta.
The Marlins sent outfielder Jake Marisnick to the Astros in return for Jarred Cosart and Kike Hernandez: Marisnick hit .272 in 51 games with his new team and Cosart went 4-4 with a 2.39 ERA in 10 starts with his new club.
The Tigers acquired David Price, the Mariners picked up Austin Jackson and the Rays received Drew Smyly and Nick Franklin: Price went 4-4 with a 3.59 ERA in 11 starts for the Tigers while Austin Jackson hit .229 in 54 games with the Mariners. He also stole 11 bases. In Tampa Bay, Smyly went 3-1 in seven starts and posted a 1.70 ERA and Franklin hit .206 in 11 games.
Obviously these stats do not tell the whole story of who won or lost a trade or whether it was even for both teams as contract situations, cash, prospects and plenty of other factors are up for consideration, but in the break between the championship series and the World Series, it is interesting to look back and see how all those Deadline deals stacked up.
Thought You Could Predict Baseball? Guess Again
Just when something appears certain, baseball proves why it is such a beautiful and yet extremely frustrating game.
Remember six weeks ago when the A’s were seemingly on cruise control and there were talks of how this could finally be Billy Beane’s season?
Remember when the Brewers got off to such a fast start and looked poised to take the NL Central?
There was a time when most people could have penciled the A’s and Brewers – although it was still a mystery if they’d win their division or simply clinch a Wild Card spot – into the playoffs and barely would have had to think twice about it.
However, fast forward a bit and baseball has reminded us all that there was a reason we penciled those teams in the playoffs and didn’t use pen.
Nothing is certain in baseball – except maybe Clayton Kershaw winning the NL Cy Young award this season – and that has been proven once again.
The Oakland Athletics – who once had a MLB-best 72-44 record – are 8-19 in their last 27 games and just 2-8 in their last 10.
On August 15th, the A’s were in first place in the AL West. On the 18th, they fell a half game back and it has been downhill for them ever since.
This morning, the A’s woke up seven games behind the Angels in the AL West and barely clinging on to the top spot in the AL Wild Card.
While the meltdown in Oakland has been highly publicized, the collapse in Milwaukee has been shocking as well.
The Brewers demise had been more gradual than the A’s. Milwaukee started the season 20-7 and has played sub-.500 baseball ever since. However, the Brewers have really gone into a tailspin lately as they’ve lost 12 of their last 13 games.
On August 31st the Brewers were tied for the NL Central lead – a position they had held sole possession of for most of the season – and on September 9th the Brewers find themselves six games back.
Changes in the standings happen all the time, especially over the course of a 162 game season and there are plenty of reasons for the way these two teams have played recently.
Some say the Brewers age and health is catching up to them.
Some say the A’s haven’t been the same since Yoenis Cespedes was traded and although numbers certainly say they haven’t been the same team, it’s foolish to think that’s the sole reason they’re struggling.
Maybe it’s just the law of averages over-correcting teams that had spent the bulk of the season playing over their heads.
Whatever the reason may be, the collapses in Milwaukee and Oakland have been just as fascinating as some of the story lines surrounding teams and players making late season charges.
Will the A’s and Brewers put it together with enough time left to salvage the season and get back on track? That remains to be seen.
However, the one thing I know for certain is that baseball is impossible to predict and although speculating is fun, the best bet is simply letting the season play itself out.
Magic Numbers, World Series Favorites, MVP Odds And More
From your basic statistics such as batting average and ERA to more advanced sabermetrics like UZR and BABIP, baseball is a sport littered with numbers.
Baseball fans typically like numbers, so here are some numbers to keep your eyes on for the remainder of the season:
Playoff Clinch Scenarios:
*The Angels can clinch a playoff berth September 10th, the earliest of any team in the Majors.
*The Orioles and Nationals could clinch their divisions (AL and NL East) on September 12th, the earliest of any team.
Magic Numbers To Win Division:
*Orioles magic number is 19
*Royals magic number is 26 (25 to clinch playoff berth)
*Angels magic number is 22 (17 to clinch playoff berth)
*Nationals magic number is 19
*Cardinals magic number is 25 (23 to clinch playoff berth)
*Dodgers magic number is 23 (20 to clinch playoff berth)
Wild Cards:
*A’s magic number to clinch a playoff berth is 21 (22 for the first Wild Card spot)
*Tigers magic number is 25 to clinch a playoff berth
*Giants magic number is 22 to clinch a playoff berth and 24 to host the Wild Card game.
*The Brewers magic number is 24.
Pennant Odds: According to Bovada Sportsbook (http://sports.bovada.lv/)
AL
*Angels – 5/2
*A’s – 7/2
*Orioles and Tigers – 4/1
*Royals – 7/1
*Mariners – 12/1
NL
*Dodgers – 2/1
*Nationals – 5/2
*Cardinals – 5/1
*Brewers and Giants – 7/1
*Braves – 14/1
World Series Odds:
*Angels – 5/1
*Dodgers – 11/2
*Nationals – 6/1
*Orioles and A’s – 7/1
*Tigers – 8/1
AL Cy Young:
*Felix Hernandez -300
*Chris Sale +300
*Max Scherzer +500
AL MVP:
*Mike Trout -200
*Robinson Cano +500
*Jose Abreu +550
NL MVP:
*Clayton Kershaw -150
*Giancarlo Stanton +120
*Andrew McCutchen +1000
There are no odds listed for the NL Cy Young award which is one way of saying congratulations to Clayton Kershaw.
AL West Weekend Recap, Takeaways
The weekend series between the Oakland Athletics and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim certainly lived up to the hype. The A’s took the first two games of the series – both of which were very tense for all nine innings – while the Angels coasted to a lopsided victory in the third game.
As these teams fight for a division crown over the last five weeks of the season there will be plenty more head-to-head matchups, but after watching the weekend series, here are some quick takeaways:
Athletics: 76-53, 1 Game Back In AL West, 5 Game Lead In Wild Card
Good:
The Athletics limped into the weekend series having lost eight of 10 and were fresh off watching their four-game division lead turn into a two-game deficit.
While taking two of three from the first place Angels, the A’s showed they are not going to roll over in this division race and in the first two games of the series they resembled the team that had the best record in baseball for the bulk of the year – not the team that has struggled in August.
It’s no secret what the A’s are capable of this season, but a rough patch had some people questioning the team’s future. Oakland used the weekend showdown against the Angels to answer some of those questions and remind everyone that they’re a playoff-caliber team.
Bad:
Over the course of a 162 game season, blowout losses – like the A’s 9-4 loss to the Angels on Sunday night – are going to happen. However, with the momentum of two straight wins against a division rival, a blowout loss can take the wind out of the sails a bit.
But, perhaps more importantly than one August loss to the Angels is the health of some of the A’s key players.
Prior to Sunday’s contest, the A’s put closer Sean Doolittle on the Disabled List with a right intercostal (the muscles between the ribs) strain.
Third baseman Josh Donaldson also had an MRI on Sunday, but manager Bob Melvin said the MRI revealed no structural damage of Donaldson’s left knee.
Melvin did say Donaldson’s knee just had a little “instability” but added that he expected the third baseman to be in the lineup Monday against the Astros.
Angels: 77-52, 1 Game Lead In AL West
Good:
After dropping the first two games of the series, the Angels offense came to life Sunday. The Angels scored eight runs in the first four innings and finished the game with nine runs on 13 hits.
While it’s always nice to see the entire offense break out in such a way, the Angels have to be pleased with the way some of their stars are swinging the bats.
Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and Erick Aybar all had multi-hit games Sunday.
When Trout, Pujols and Hamilton are all hitting, the Angels offense is extremely dangerous and it looks like that may be on the verge of happening.
Hamilton singled in his first at-bat and then homered in his second at-bat while Trout singled in his second at-bat and hit a 417 blast to center field in his third at-bat.
In the same way it was good for the Angels to see their offense break out, it was also good for Mike Scioscia to not see a couple of his relievers on the mound.
Kevin Jepsen, Joe Smith and Houston Street did not have to pitch in Sunday’s finale which was vital for the Angels as they had all pitched extensively on the road trip.
Jepsen pitched in five of the 10 games on the trip, Smith pitched in six and Street pitched in five. Street did start to warm up in the ninth, but never came in the game.
Bad:
The Angels leave Oakland with a one game lead in the division, but are just 4-8 against the Athletics this season. The Angels finish the season with 43 games in 45 days and seven of those games will be against the A’s.
The Angels and A’s will face off four times next week in Anaheim and then in late September the teams will play three in Oakland – where the Angels are just 1-5 this season.
Sometimes teams just don’t match-up well against other teams, but if the Angels want to hold on to the division lead, they are going to need to find a way to beat the A’s head-to-head.
Mariners:
The AL West race has been centered on the Angels and the Athletics, but by no means is this only a two-team race.
Seattle is arguably playing the best baseball of any team in the division right now and with a very strong pitching staff, the Mariners are more than capable of catching either the A’s or the Angels.
The Mariners have a 2.28 ERA – the best in baseball – since the All-Star break, have won seven of their last 10 games and still have six games left against the A’s and seven left against the Angels.
As ESPN’s Buster Olney noted on Twitter, the Mariners were 11 1/2 games back of the A’s on July 27th. On August 25th, they’ll wake up with a one-game lead in the second Wild Card spot and also find themselves just five games behind the Athletics and six games behind the Angels.
Boor on Baseball 